NEBRASKA — A significant severe weather event is shaping up for this Sunday into Sunday night across a large corridor stretching from central Nebraska and Kansas eastward through Iowa, Missouri, and into Illinois, with all hazards on the table including tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds, and large hail.
A trough ejecting into the Central Plains Sunday will trigger lee-cyclogenesis, developing a low-pressure system that sets up a favorable environment for an organized and potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak.
Storm Initiation Expected Early to Mid-Afternoon Across Central Nebraska and Kansas
Storm initiation is forecast to begin rapidly in the early to mid-afternoon hours Sunday across central Nebraska and central Kansas, driven by activity on the northeast quadrant of an embedded shortwave moving through the region.
Once storms fire across Nebraska and Kansas they are expected to move rapidly eastward into Iowa and Missouri through the afternoon and evening hours, expanding the threat zone significantly as the day progresses.
The combination of lee-cyclogenesis and the embedded shortwave creates a highly favorable setup for supercell development across the warm sector of the low-pressure system during the peak afternoon heating hours.
All Hazards Possible Including Tornadoes Especially in Supercells Across the Warm Sector
Forecasters have made clear that all hazards are possible with Sunday’s severe weather event, with tornadoes considered especially likely in any supercells that manage to develop within the warm sector of the low-pressure system.
The significant severe weather zone covers a broad and densely populated area including Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, Topeka, Wichita, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, St. Louis, Jefferson City, and Springfield across Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri.
Supercells developing in the warm sector carry the greatest individual tornado threat, while any storms that organize into line segments will bring a heightened risk of embedded tornadoes and widespread swaths of damaging straight-line winds.
Damaging Straight-Line Winds Greater Threat Along Line Segments Into Sunday Night
While tornadoes remain possible throughout the event, forecasters are highlighting damaging straight-line winds as the greater overall threat particularly as storms organize into line segments and push eastward into Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois through Sunday night.
The some severe weather zone extends northward across southern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin, meaning a broader surrounding area will also experience storm activity even if it falls outside the most significant threat corridor.
Residents across Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings Sunday and to finalize severe weather safety plans well ahead of storm initiation in the early afternoon hours. Stay with GordonRamsayClub.com for the latest updates.
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