ST. LOUIS, MO. — Today’s tornado threat shows a large 5 percent risk with a Conditional Intensity Group 1 concern for strong tornadoes in place from central Missouri through southern Illinois and into southwest Indiana, with a morning round of storms set to determine the highest threat area for the more dangerous second round later in the day.
Morning Storms Will Shape Afternoon Tornado Threat
A morning round of storms will once again determine the highest threat area for tornadoes from the second round of storms. Forecasters say a localized upgrade to tornado probabilities is possible if recovery from the morning storms happens faster than expected, which would allow for greater instability ahead of the afternoon round.
Strong Tornadoes Possible From Missouri Into Indiana
The core threat zone for strong tornadoes, rated EF2 or greater possible, stretches from central Missouri through southern Illinois and into southwest Indiana, with the highest probability area, in the 5 to 10 percent range, centered directly over the St. Louis, Springfield Illinois, and Indianapolis corridor.
Kansas and Nebraska Watch Isolated Supercells
Isolated supercells may also produce tornadoes in western Kansas and Nebraska today, though the highest threat in that area is large hail and damaging wind gusts rather than tornadoes. This separate threat zone sits well west of the main tornado risk corridor.
Broad Stretch of the Country Under Some Level of Threat
Beyond the highest risk zones, a broader 2 percent tornado risk extends from eastern Colorado and Nebraska through Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and into Kentucky and Tennessee. Cities including Kansas City, Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Louisville, and Nashville all fall within this wider outlook area as Sunday’s severe weather threat unfolds.
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