ILLINOIS — The entire Stateline region remains under a Level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk for severe weather today and tonight May 18, though forecasters at Mark’s Weather Hub are noting that thick cloud cover through much of the day will likely limit severe potential significantly, with the main storm threat arriving overnight between 1 AM and 4 AM when storms tracking from the Central Plains reach the region.
Gusty winds are identified as the primary severe weather threat with any overnight storms, while the hail and tornado threat for the region today and tonight is described as very very low.
Cloud Cover Limiting Daytime Severe Potential With Dry Afternoon and Evening Likely
The biggest factor working against severe weather development today across the Stateline region is persistent and rather thick cloud cover expected to remain in place for a good portion of the day, robbing the atmosphere of the solar energy needed to destabilize and fuel intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours.
Forecasters are leaning toward dry conditions through the afternoon and evening as the cloud cover suppresses storm initiation, with another batch of light rain expected to move through over the next few hours and no signs of cloud breaks showing up on satellite imagery.
If a few hours of sunshine were to break through the cloud cover, all modes of severe weather would quickly come into play as storms could develop rapidly and intensify, but forecasters are highly skeptical of this scenario given the current satellite trends across the region.
Overnight Storms Arriving 1 AM to 4 AM Packing Gusty Winds as Primary Threat
The better chance for storm activity across the Stateline region arrives after midnight, with storms expected to move through sometime in the 1 AM to 4 AM range as the system that has been wreaking havoc across the Central Plains pushes eastward into Illinois and surrounding areas.
These overnight storms will likely be on a weakening trend by the time they arrive, but forecasters note they should still be packing at least some punch upon arrival, with gusty winds identified as by far the main severe weather threat with any storms that come through during the overnight hours.
The damaging wind risk map shows a 30 percent probability across Indiana and 15 percent across the Cedar Rapids and Chicago corridor, confirming that wind remains the dominant hazard concern for tonight’s overnight storm passage across the region.
Tornado Risk at 10 Percent West and 2 Percent East While Hail Risk Reaches 80 Percent Near Kansas City
The tornado risk across the Stateline region today and tonight remains very low, with a 2 percent tornado probability across the Chicago and Cedar Rapids corridor and a 5 percent probability across the Peoria and Saint Louis area based on the current outlook maps.
The 10 percent tornado probability and CIG2 designation are concentrated further west near Omaha and Kansas City where the more significant severe weather setup is centered today, well to the west of the Illinois and Iowa Stateline region.
The large hail risk map shows an 80 percent probability near Kansas City and Omaha dropping to 30 percent near Peoria and just 15 percent near Chicago, further confirming that the most dangerous and impactful severe weather today is concentrated across the Central Plains rather than across the Stateline region covered by the Slight Risk designation. Stay with GordonRamsayClub.com for the latest updates.
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