DENVER, COLORADO — A Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development is in play across the Denver metro and Front Range corridor today, with forecasters noting that if sufficient surface heating and instability can develop through the morning hours, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across a zone stretching from Fort Collins and Greeley in the north through Denver, Boulder, Centennial, Castle Rock, Colorado Springs, and down to Pueblo in the south after 1 PM today.
Marginal Risk Zone Covers Entire Front Range From Fort Collins to Pueblo After 1 PM
The forecast map shows a red oval zone of concern encompassing the entire Colorado Front Range urban corridor from Fort Collins and Greeley at the northern end through Longmont, Boulder, Thornton, Denver, Centennial, Castle Rock, Woodmoor, Colorado Springs, Canon City, and Pueblo at the southern end. This corridor represents one of the most densely populated stretches of Colorado and includes millions of residents within the outlined severe weather awareness zone for today’s afternoon hours.
The Marginal Risk designation means that while not everyone in this zone will see severe weather today, the threat is real and meaningfully above zero. Isolated strong to severe storm cells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, or heavy rainfall remain possible if the atmosphere delivers enough surface heating and instability during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
CAM Trends Indicate Storms Could Linger Into Nighttime Hours Due to Upslope Flow
Beyond the initial afternoon storm development window, Convection Allowing Model trends are indicating that storms may linger well into the nighttime hours across the Front Range due to persistent light upslope flow continuing to feed low-level moisture into the region after sunset. This means the severe weather awareness window extends beyond just the afternoon peak heating period and into the overnight hours for communities along and east of the I-25 corridor.
Fort Morgan, Bennett, Roggen, Kiowa, and Limon on the eastern plains also sit within or near the outlined concern zone, keeping the broader eastern Colorado region in the awareness footprint for any storm cells that organize and push eastward off the Front Range this afternoon.
Surface Heating and Instability Development Remain the Key Question Today
The primary conditional factor determining whether today’s Marginal Risk materializes into organized severe storm activity is whether sufficient surface heating and instability can build across the Front Range through the late morning hours. Forecasters are clear that the setup is conditional rather than certain, making storm awareness and preparedness the key message for Denver metro residents heading into the afternoon.
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