CHICAGO, ILLINOIS — Forecasters are expressing serious concern about Wednesday June 17 as one of the most significant tornado outbreak setups seen in June in recent memory, with the 06z HRRR future radar valid at 6PM CT Wednesday showing multiple intense storm cores across Chicago, Kankakee, Champaign, Springfield, and Indianapolis as discrete supercells carry a serious risk of multiple large and strong to intense EF-3 plus tornadoes.
HRRR Shows Multiple Intense Storm Cores at 6PM Wednesday
The 06z HRRR future radar valid Wednesday June 17 at 6PM CT shows a concentrated corridor of intense storm activity stretching from Chicago and Rockford southward through Kankakee, Peoria, Springfield, Champaign, and toward Indianapolis and Lafayette. Deep red and maroon radar returns are concentrated across the Chicago to Springfield axis, with additional intense cells visible near St. Louis and Columbia to the southwest.
The discrete nature of the storm cells shown on the HRRR at 6PM is precisely what forecasters are most concerned about, as individual supercells operating in discrete mode have the greatest potential for producing large and long-track significant tornadoes.
Serious Risk of Multiple EF-3 Plus Tornadoes if Storms Stay Discrete
If Wednesday’s storms can maintain discrete supercell mode through the mid to late afternoon and evening hours, forecasters are flagging a serious risk of multiple large and strong to intense EF-3 plus tornadoes across the Illinois and Indiana corridor. This level of tornado potential in June is being described as really crazy for this time of year given the extraordinary atmospheric setup in place.
Even the failure mode scenario where storms upscale quickly into a line still carries tornado potential from semi-discrete cells out ahead of the line, along with destructive damaging winds across the broader corridor.
This Setup Could Turn Into a Significant Tornado Outbreak
Forecasters are leaving no uncertainty about the severity of Wednesday’s potential, stating directly that if things evolve as currently modeled this could turn into a significant tornado outbreak across central Illinois and northwest Indiana. Residents across Chicago, Kankakee, Champaign, Springfield, Peoria, Lafayette, and Indianapolis must treat Wednesday as a life-safety day with tornado shelter plans finalized well before the mid-afternoon storm window opens.
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