CENTRAL KANSAS — Central Kansas including Wichita and Salina faces a significant large hail threat tomorrow, May 14, as a dryline encroaches upon a warm front and ignites high-based thunderstorms with transient supercell structures capable of producing hail over 2 inches in diameter.
Forecasters have placed a Level 2 hail risk at 15 percent across the core of the threat zone centered over central Kansas, with the hail threat also extending eastward into western Illinois at a lower coverage and less favorable timing.
Dryline Igniting High Based Supercell Thunderstorms Capable of 2 Plus Inch Hail
The interaction between an encroaching dryline and a warm front across central Kansas tomorrow will ignite high-based thunderstorms that forecasters expect to develop transient supercell structures during the event.
These supercell structures carry the primary potential for very large hail, with some stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter across the Level 2 core zone covering Wichita, Salina, Hutchinson, and Topeka. The high-based and elevated nature of the storms is what drives the significant hail potential while simultaneously keeping tornado chances near zero for this particular setup.
Level 2 at 15 Percent and Level 1 at 5 Percent Hail Zones Outlined for May 14
The hail threat is organized into two distinct risk zones for tomorrow across Kansas and surrounding areas. The inner Level 2 zone carries a 15 percent probability of large hail and covers the core of central Kansas centered around Wichita and Salina.
A broader Level 1 zone at 5 percent surrounds the core threat area and extends outward across a wider portion of Kansas, into portions of Missouri, and eastward toward western Illinois. The CIG 1 designation highlights that hail of 2 inches or greater in diameter is possible within the most concentrated part of the Level 2 zone tomorrow afternoon.
Hail Chances Extend Into Western Illinois but Coverage and Timing Less Favorable
The hail threat does not end at the Kansas border, with forecasters noting that hail chances may extend eastward into western Illinois as the storm activity progresses through the day on May 14. However, coverage across western Illinois will be less than in the core Kansas zone, and timing will not be as favorable for organized hail-producing storm development that far east.
Forecasters are nonetheless watching for a rogue storm or two across western Illinois that could still produce significant hail despite the overall less favorable setup compared to central Kansas. Stay with GordonRamsayClub.com for the latest updates.
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